NFL Division Previews
NFL division odds are out. At first glance it appears that a season of repeats is in order with seven of eight defending division winners favored to turn the trick again this year, but a closer look shows that there is quite a bit of value to be found in these plays.
AFC East Odds
New England (-500) appears slightly vulnerable with Rob Gronkowski out indefinitely and Wes Welker gone, but they’re still the class of the division. They’re an injury or two from being in some real trouble, though.
Miami (+500) is the sexy pick this year. They won free agency, but the next NFL team to drastically improve through free agency will be the first.
New York (+1000) and Buffalo (+1800) have a lot of work to do to get back to a level where they can compete with the Patriots.
The play: Pass
AFC South Odds
The offseason didn’t go well for Baltimore (+180). The team lost some key veterans and that doesn’t bode well for their chances of avoiding the dreaded Super Bowl hangover.
Pittsburgh (+200) is so well-coached that it’s tough to bet against them, but they let some key players leave in the offseason and don’t appear to have enough talent to get to the playoffs.
Cincinnati (+200) has won 19 games over the last two seasons, and as their young core matures they’re only going to get better.
Cleveland (+750) is finally trending in the right direction, but they’re still a few years away from competing.
The play: Bengals (+200)
AFC South Odds
Indianapolis (+250) played above themselves a year ago thanks to an easy schedule. The schedule-makers must be Colts fans because Indy will enjoy the third-easiest schedule this year.
However, Houston (-250) will play the league’s sixth-easiest schedule, and the improvements they made on defense make them the team to beat once again.
I can’t think of anything positive to say about Tennessee (+750) other than that they get to play Jacksonville (+2500) twice.
The play: Texans (-250)
AFC West Odds
The AFC West teams will enjoy the softest slate of games in football, with each of the division’s four teams ranking in the top-5 among the league’s easiest schedules.
Kansas City (+650) and San Diego (+650) should improve on their records from a year ago, while Oakland (+2000) will be lucky to win five games.
Denver (-500) got Peyton Manning some extra toys to play with in the offseason. They come at a steep price, but as far as I’m concerned it’s free money.
The play: Broncos (-500)
NFC East Odds
Dallas (+225) has the weapons on offense to compete with the best of them, and they got healthy on defense in the offseason.
It sounds like Washington (+225) is going to get Robert Griffin III on the field by week one. The problem is Robert Griffin II and the Shanahans might be too cautious with him until it’s too late.
New York (+175) is without some key offensive players at the start of camp, while Chip Kelly will use year one in Philadelphia (+500) to work the kinks out of his offense.
The play: Cowboys (+225)
NFC North Odds
Green Bay (-175) is going to regret letting Greg Jennings go, and Jennings is going to regret going to Minnesota (+425) to play with Christian Ponder. The Vikings played above themselves last season and can’t count on a repeat performance from Adrian Peterson.
Chicago (+350) finally addressed their concerns at left tackle by bringing in Jermon Bushrod, and Martellus Bennett is their first legitimate threat at tight end since Greg Olsen left.
I was tempted to go with Detroit (+750), but they’re going to play the league’s second-toughest schedule this year.
The play: Bears (+350)
NFC South Odds
New Orleans (+160) gets Sean Payton back and you just know they’re going to play with a chip on their shoulder all season. Drew Brees might break every passing record there is this year.
Steven Jackson was a solid get for Atlanta (+110), and Tony Gonzalez returning for another season is great, but the team needed to pay more attention to the other side of the ball in the offseason.
Tampa Bay (+600) will be better, but Darrelle Revis can’t solve their issues in the secondary by himself.
Carolina (+600) has some appeal as a post-hype sleeper, but they drew the toughest schedule in football this season.
The play: Saints (+160)
NFC West Odds
The arms race out West has set up what will be a great battle between San Francisco (-125) and Seattle (+125) for the division crown. Both teams are stacked, but a slightly softer schedule and the best home field advantage in football give the Seahawks the edge.
St. Louis (+800) should take another step forward in their second year under Jeff Fisher.
Arizona (+3300) shouldn’t have let Ray Horton leave.
The play: Seahawks (+125)
Parity rules the NFL, so seven of eight division champions repeating is highly unlikely. Wise bettors will recognize that there is plenty of value to be found in division plays this season.
